What a season it was! With the 2018 season in the books it is time to take a final look back at the year that was by remembering the top moments of the season. These moments are in the order they happened. This is part two of the series of posts
July 17th: Bryce Harper wins Home Run Derby in front of home crowd
The 2018 season was a disappointing one for the Washington Nationals, but they had one great moment during the All-Star break. Washington was the host of the all-star festivities including the Home Run Derby, where the Nationals’ own Bryce Harper was competing. Harper hit 45 total home runs on the night, including nine in the last 50 seconds to tie Kyle Schwarber in the finals, before defeating him in bonus time (mlb.com). This derby was record setting with a record 221 home runs being hit into the Washington night, including an event-leading 55 from the Chicago Cubs’ Kyle Schwarber (mlb.com). Harper hugged his father who pitched to him as the sell out crowd roared. Harper’s future was a subject of intense speculation all season long as his free agency loomed like a storm cloud over the Nationals all season long, but for a night at least, Bryce Harper was D.C.’s favorite son one more time.
Harper won the 2018 Home Run Derby at his home ballpark (image via wikimedia commons)
September 29: David Wright says goodbye
Mets captain David Wright was one of the best players of the 2000s until injuries derailed his career. Having not played a game since May of 2016, the Mets announced Wright would play a final game on September 29 to give the fans a chance to say goodbye and thank you. There was no fairytale home run in his final at-bat, Wright went 0-1 with a walk and handled his one play at third base with ease. He jogged out to his position in the top of the fifth and was removed from the game to a standing ovation that lasted over 3 minutes. A tearful Wright hugged each of his teammates as the crowd chanted “Thank you David.” Wright blew a kiss to the sellout crowd at Citi Field, took a bow and one last curtain call before departing for the clubhouse with a video montage of the many highlights of his illustrious career playing on the jumbotron (espn.com). The 7-time all-star’s daughter threw out the ceremonial first pitch, with her father catching it behind the plate.
What a season it was! With the 2018 season in the books it is time to take a final look back at the year that was by remembering the top moments of the season. These moments are in the order they happened.
March 28: Vlad Jr.’s Montreal Walk-Off
Our first moment doesn’t even come from a regular season game. On March 28 the Toronto Blue Jays played an exhibition game vs. the St. Louis Cardinals at Olympic Stadium in Montreal to close out their spring training slate of games. With the game in a scoreless tie in the 10th inning the top prospect in baseball, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. came to bat to a raucous ovation. Guerrero’s father, Vladimir Guerrero Sr. was a star for the now defunct Montreal Expos from 1996-2003. In a storybook-type moment, Guerrero Jr. hit a game-winning home run to win the game in the city his father starred in. It was an exhibition game with a lot of meaning for the city of Montreal, as they lobby to get the Expos back next time the MLB expands.
April 8: Andrew McCutchen has 6 Hits and a Walk-off
Five-time all-star Andrew McCutchen has enjoyed an outstanding career, including a NL MVP in 2013, but he was at the top of his game on April 8 this season. Playing the rival Los Angeles Dodgers, the San Francisco Giants found themselves down 5-4 in the bottom of the 13th inning. The Giants mounted a rally by putting two runners on. In stepped Mccutcheon, who had five hits in the game already. Locked in 12 pitch at bat McCutchen fouled off 7 two-strike pitches. Finally McCutchen got a pitch to drive and he drilled a three-run walk off home run, becoming the first player since 1969 and only the second player since 1900 to have six hits and a walk-of homerun in one game (mlb.com).
McCutchen’s six-hit effort on April 8 was a highlight this season (image via flickr.com)
April 17: Lindor hits emotional home run in Puerto Rico
Puerto Rico native Francisco Lindor hit a two-run home run in the Indians 6-1 win over the Twins, becoming just the 7th native to homer in Puerto Rico’s Hiram Bithorn Stadium (usatoday.com). A hurricane-devastated country got the stadium ready for the series between the Indians and Twins, and their efforts were rewarded when their native son homered to a deafening ovation. The Indians donated $37,000 to hurricane relief efforts and Lindor visited his former elementary school earlier in the day (usatoday.com).
With the 2018 regular season having ended award season is here. The 2018 awards will be given out following the World Series but it is never too early to look at who should win the most prestigious award: the most valuable player award. There is always controversy surrounding the MVP award as people struggle to define what the “valuable” in most valuable player means. This week, we will look at who should win the MVP in the National League.
Candidates
The NL MVP race is not nearly as straightforward as the American League, with several players that have a case for the award including, Matt Carpenter of the St. Louis Cardinals, Lorenzo Cain of the Milwaukee Brewers, and Freddie Freeman of the Atlanta Braves. However, at the end of the day the three foremost candidates are Christian Yelich of the Brewers, the Chicago Cubs’ Javier Baez, an Jacob deGrom of the New York Mets.
The Case for Christian Yelich
Christian Yelich had a career year leading the Milwaukee Brewers to their first postseason appearance since 2012. He won the NL batting title, batting .346 with 36 home runs (third in the league) and 110 runs batted in (second in the league). Yelich lead NL position players in WAR (7.6) and led the NL in slugging percentage (.598), on-base plus slugging (1.000), and total bases (343) while finishing second in hits with 187. (baseball-reference.com) From a value perspective, it is hard to fathom just how important Yelich is to the Brewers. The Brewers won the NL Central by just one game this season, without Yelich they certainly would not have won their division and likely would have missed the playoffs altogether. The only thing that could hurt Yelich is he was “merely” good early in the season before catching fire in the second half of the 2018 campaign.
Christian Yelich is a leading candidate for the NL MVPL (Image via flickr.com)
The Case for Javier Baez
The Chicago Cubs’ flashy middle infielder finally delivered on his prospect pedigree this season as the best player on a Cubs team that finished second in the NL Central and made the playoffs as a wild-card team. He led the National League with 110 RBIs and finished in the top ten in several categories, including WAR (6.3 ranking 7th), slugging percentage (.554 ranking 4th), runs scored (101 ranking 8th), hits (176 ranking 8th), doubles (40 ranking 6th), and home runs (34 ranking 7th). (baseball-reference.com) Baez will also be helped by the fact he plays for a big-market team that plays a lot of nationally televised games and has had playoff exposure each of the last four years. His flashy style of play has been well-received by many fans and his defensive WAR of 2.0 ranked second in the NL. His flashy style that makes him popular may also work against him as most of the baseball writers that vote for this award are old-school types who feel he disrespects the game. Beyond that he only led the league in one category and it was an opportunity-based one at that, so his great season may not have been great enough.
The Case for Jacob deGrom
The Mets’ ace was the only reason to watch a pedestrian Mets team in 2018 as the right-handed pitcher turned in a phenomenal season. Despite a 10-9 win loss record that he was dealt due to poor run support, deGrom lead the league in earned run average (1.70) and WAR (10.0) while finishing second in strikeouts (269), strikeouts per 9 (11.157) and baserunners per inning (0.912). (baseball-reference.com) deGrom was without a doubt the best pitcher in baseball this season but his position could work against him as a pitcher has not won an MVP award since Justin Verlander in 2012. His pedestrian record of 10-9 will work against him as well. If deGrom doesn’t win the MVP he can place some blame on his team’s poor offense and lack of run support.
Who Will Win
Baez had a very nice season but like Jose Ramirez in the AL he did not put up eye-popping numbers in any category and should finish in third place. deGrom should finish second, not by any fault of his own, but Yelich was just so good this season. The fact that he is a pitcher very well could drop him lower than second in the voting. That leaves Yelich as the clear winner, the most important cog of a Brewers’ team that returned to relevance this year. Yelich should be rewarded for his great season with a most valuable player trophy.
With the 2018 regular season having ended award season is here. The 2018 awards will be given out following the World Series but it is never too early to look at who should win the most prestigious award: the most valuable player award. There is always controversy surrounding the MVP award as people struggle to define what the “valuable” in most valuable player means. Here we will define it as the best player in the American League in 2018.
Candidates
Throughout the season several players made a case to be included in this discussion including Matt Chapman of the Oakland Athletics, Alex Bregman of the Houston Astros and Francisco Lindor of the Cleveland Indians. In the end three candidates rose above the rest; Mookie Betts of the Boston Red Sox, the Indians’ Jose Ramirez, and Mike Trout of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.
The Case for Mookie Betts
Mookie Betts was the best player on baseball’s best team in 2018 as he led the Red Sox to a franchise record 108 win season. Betts led the American League in WAR (10.9), batting average (.346), slugging percentage (.640), runs scored (129), and extra base hits (84). He was second in on-base percentage (.438), on-base plus slugging (1.078), doubles (47) and he was third in total bases with 333 (www.baseball-reference.com). The charismatic young star accomplished all of this while playing solid defense in right field while making his third all-star team in just his fourth full-season. His OPS+ of 186 means he was 86% better than the average hitter in 2018. He also had a 30-30 season (30 home runs and 30 stolen bases). There is no question that Betts had an outstanding offensive season. One of the few knocks on Betts is he missed 25 games due to injury. From a pure stat perspective Betts should run away with the award, but it one takes the “valuable” in most valuable player literally it is fair to question how valuable Betts was to a team like the Red Sox who likely would have won 100 game if Betts was just average this season.
Mookie Betts’ outstanding 2018 could net him an MVP award ( image courtesy of flickr.com)
The Case for Jose Ramirez
Jose Ramirez was key for the AL Central Champion Cleveland Indians. Playing third base and second base, Ramirez compiled the best season of his career. He had a batting average of .318 (4th in the league), a .387 on base percentage (6th), a slugging percentage of .552 (4th), an OPS of .939 (4th), and his 39 home runs and 105 runs batted in both ranked (4th). He was also 4th in the American League with a 7.9 WAR. (www.baseball-reference.com) While he did not lead the league in any of these categories, if the definition of valuable is taken literally one would be hard-pressed to find a player more valuable to his team than Ramirez was to the Indians. Take him away from the 91-win Indians and not only is it questionable if they make it to the playoffs, it is questionable if they even finish above .500.
The Case for Mike Trout
It is tradition at this point to include Mike Trout in most valuable player discussion. In fact Trout has never finished lower than second in MVP voting since he has been in the league since 2012 (He won in 2014 and 2016). Trout had another phenomenal season, batting .312 with 39 home runs, and an OPS+ of 199, in other words he was twice as good as the average hitter in 2018. (His OPS+ led the major leagues) His 10.2 WAR was second only to Mookie Betts in the American League. Trout led the league in on base percentage (.460), on-base plus slugging (1.088), and walks (122). He accomplished all of this while missing some time due to injury, playing in 140 games. (www.baseball-reference.com) Trout is criminally underappreciated, a modern-day Willie Mays playing for a mediocre team on the west coast and his Angels team went 80-82, well out of the playoffs. Playing for a west coast team that was not particularly competitive will hurt Trout compared to the big market appeal of Betts.
Who will win?
Jose Ramirez should finish in third-place, he had a great year but his season was a notch below the otherworldly production of Betts and Trout. Trout is almost a victim of his own brilliance, his season has been overlooked because he is so good year in and year out. Playing for a losing team will hurt his case too, as some will say the Angels can lose with him so they can lose without him. This leaves Mookie Betts, a young marketable star for baseball’s best team. He will likely win the award in part because of his big market appeal, but no one will complain. Betts certainly had an MVP-caliber year and he would be a well-deserving winner of the award.
The MLB postseason field is down to four with the National League Championship Series and American League Championship Series beginning on Saturday. The Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers will face off in what should be a close series.
NLCS Preview
How they got here
Despite a slow start, the Dodgers were in a tight race with the Colorado Rockies all season long, so tight that the two teams were tied atop the NL West after 162 games. The Dodgers beat the Rockies in a 163rd game for their sixth straight division title and punched their ticket to the NLDS with a 92-71 record. The Dodgers beat the Atlanta Braves 3-1 in the best of five NLDS behind stellar pitching from Clayton Kershaw and Hyun-Jin Ryu to advance to the NLCS.
The Brewers were also in a back and forth race all season long, with the Chicago Cubs for the NL Central title. It took 163 games to decide this race as well, with the Brewers beating the Cubs in the tiebreaker and winning their first NL Central title since 2011 with a 96-67 record that was the best in the National League. They swept the Rockies 3-0 in the NLDS to secure a date with the Dodgers in the NLCS. They come into this series with a lot of momentum, they have not lost a game since September 22.
Pitching
The Dodgers have a stellar pitching staff led by future hall-of-famer and 3-time Cy Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw who tossed 8 innings of shutout ball in his NLDS start versus the Braves. Veteran left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu was outstanding when healthy this season, 7-3 with a 1.97 ERA in 15 starts and he also had 8 shutout innings versus the Braves in the NLDS. Rounding out the rotation is 23 year-old phenom Walker Buehler, who had a 2.63 ERA in his rookie season this year. In the bullpen, Pedro Baez and Scott Alexander set up 3-time all star closer Kenley Jansen.
7-time all-star Clayton Kershaw leads the Dodgers pitching staff (Image via flickr)
The Brewers rotation is solid if unspectacular, led by journeyman righty Jhoulys Chacin who won 15 games with a 3.50 ERA. The Brewers bullpen is their strength, as demonstrated by their decision to start a relief pitcher in game one of the NLDS and use their bullpen the entire games (It worked, the Brewers won 3-2). The Brewers bullpen combined for 43 saves between Corey Knebel and all-stars Josh Hader and Jermey Jeffress, none of those three recorded more than 16 saves, none less than 12. The Brewers are a prime example of the blurred lines for pitching roles in today’s game.
The Brewers have a better bullpen, but the Dodgers bullpen is good in its own right and the Dodgers rotation is far superior to the Brewers. Edge: Dodgers
Offense
The Dodger have a high powered offense that had a whopping seven players hit more than 20 home runs this season. Catcher Yasmani Grandal led major league catchers with 24 home runs. First baseman Cody Bellinger followed up his incredible 2017 rookie season with a solid sophomore campaign; an .814 OPS while playing 162 games. The Dodgers got a brand new middle infield at the trade deadline, acquiring the powerful second baseman Brian Dozier from the Twins and one of the best players in baseball, shortstop Manny Machado from the Orioles. Third baseman Justin Turner led the team with 4.2 WAR in just 103 games. Outfielder Matt Kemp had an .818 OPS while outfielders Joc Pederson, Enrique Hernandez and Yasiel Puig combined for 69 home runs while splitting time with Kemp at the three outfield spots.
The Brewers had a powerful offense in their own right with three players hitting over 30 home runs. Milwaukee is led by MVP-candidate left fielder Christian Yelich who was worth 7.6 WAR, led the league in hitting with a .326 batting average and hit 36 home runs and drove in 110 runs. Center fielder Lorenzo Cain was worth 6.9 WAR, hitting .308. Right fielder Ryan Braun had a up and down season, though he hit 21 home runs. Travis Shaw was the Brewers best infielder, hitting 32 home runs while playing second base and third base. Deadline acquisition Mike Moustakas hit 28 home runs including 8 with the Brewers. Jonathan Schoop, Orlando Arcia, and Jonathan Villar have been a solid middle infield trio for the Brew Crew. Eric Thames hit 16 home runs as a part time player, and his power could play big off the bench in this series.
The Dodgers have a more balanced offense while the Brewers are more reliant on a few sluggers for their offense. The Brewers best hitters are better than the Dodgers, but their offense is not as deep as the Dodgers. Slight Edge: Dodgers
Prediction
There is a good chance this series goes down to the wire. The Dodgers are probably the better team and they have more playoff experience, playing in the World Series in 2017. The Brewers are no slouches though, and they are the hottest team in baseball right now. During the playoffs it is often not as much about how is the better team as it is who is hot. Prediction: Brewers win the series 4-3
Statistics and standings from baseball-reference.com
Let’s make up a scenario. Pitcher A takes the mound and absolutely dominates the opposing lineup. All of his pitches are working, he is racking up the strikeouts and allowing only a handful of runners on base. Unfortunately, his own lineup is having the same kind of trouble with the opposing pitcher and the game is locked in a scoreless tie going into the top of the eighth inning. Pitcher A strikes out two batters before allowing a bloop double. There is a runner at second with two outs when the next batter hits a ball through the third baseman’s legs and the runner scores the unearned run. Pitcher A’s team gets shutout and he is tagged with the loss as his team loses 1-0. His night ends with him pitching 8 innings allowing one unearned run on 3 hits and striking out 11.
Pitcher B is getting knocked around by the other team, but survives five inning giving up five earned runs. Luckily for him, his team has crushed the ball all game long to the tune of seven runs in the first five innings. When he leaves the game his team leads 7-5 and the game ends with the same score. He gets the win pitching 5 innings allowing 5 earned runs on 9 hits, striking out 3 and walking 4.
Clearly Pitcher A pitched more effectively, yet he was given the loss because his offense did not support him. Pitcher B got the win because of his offense. Why should pitchers be penalized by a lack of run support when they pitch well? Pitcher wins are the most useless baseball statistic for this reason.
How are pitching wins assigned?
To get a win a starting pitcher must pitch a minimum of five innings and his team must take a permanent lead while he is pitching. A relief pitcher gets a win if he is the pitcher when his team takes the permanent lead. The “old school” way of thinking judges a pitcher’s effectiveness by their win-loss record but it is time to look beyond that. A pitcher’s win-loss record shows a very small part of a pitcher’s season. A prime is example is New York Mets pitcher Jacob deGrom this season.
Jacob deGrom’s Superb Season
Simply put, deGrom has been the best pitcher in baseball in 2018. He led major league baseball with a 1.70 ERA, the lowest since 2015. He struck out 269 batters in 217 innings, finishing second in strikeouts and Ks/9. His 9.6 WAR was second among pitchers and he led the league in win probability added. This resume would be enough for a unanimous Cy Young award except for one thing; deGroms’s record was a pedestrian 10-9. Now this shouldn’t matter, but many of the old school voters for the award do not think a pitcher with a 10-9 record should be named the best pitcher in the league. People are putting too much stock in a useless statistic. A pitcher’s job is to prevent runs and deGrom was historically good at that in 2018, becoming just the 7th pitcher since 1933 to throw over 215 innings with a 1.70 ERA. He gave up four runs in one start and had a record 29 straight starts allowing three runs or less. He did his job of preventing runs. deGrom or any pitcher has no control over his offensive support. Pitchers should not be penalized for a mediocre offense come award season. This video of ESPN’s Michael Wilbon is an example of this old school mentality:
Consider this:
If the Mets scored 4 runs in each of deGroms’ starts he would be 30-0
If the Mets scored 3 runs in each of his starts deGrom would be 25-1
If the Mets scored just 2 runs in each of his starts deGrom would be 20-6
These numbers are incredible and Michael Wilbon and others would be singing deGrom’s praises if he had any of the above records.
It’s Time to Look Past Wins
This is the information age for baseball. Analytics and sabermetrics have changed the way players are valued and front offices now put little stock in the traditional statistics. Jacob deGrom has earned the Cy Young. It is not an award for the Mets offense, it is an award for the best pitcher in baseball this season, and that pitcher was deGrom.
2018 has to be seen as a successful season for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Picked by many to finish last in the NL Central, they stayed competitive throughout the summer and have a winning record of 80-77. This season has been a far cry from the doom and gloom prognosticators who predicted a 100 loss season, or the fans who have boycotted PNC Park.
Low Expectations
When the Pirates traded ace pitcher Gerrit Cole and former MVP Andrew McCutchen in the off season fans basically lost their minds, paying no attention to the returns from the trades. Fans vowed to boycott PNC Park indefinitely, returning only watch McCutchen’s return to Pittsburgh in May as a member of the San Francisco Giants. Calls flooded into sports radio shows, lamenting the trades and accusing the Pirates front office of penny-pinching. Josh Harrison requested a trade which only inflamed the fans anti-front office sentiment. 100 loss predictions were thrown around.
The off season trades of McCutchen and Cole led to low expectations (Image from River Ave Blues)
A New Pirates Generation
What fans ignored was the return the Pirates got in these trades. For Cole, the Pirates acquired pitcher Joe Musgrove, third baseman Colin Moran, and minor league outfielder Jason Martin from the Houston Astros. For McCutchen, the Pirates acquired pitcher Kyle Crick and minor league outfielder Bryan Reynolds. Also using the money saved from the trades, the Pirates acquired 2017 All-Star outfielder Corey Dickerson from the Rays. These moves acquired players who could potentially be cornerstones for years to come. Colin Moran was the Pirates starting third baseman and hit .275 with 10 home runs in his first full major league season. Joe Musgrove had a very solid season, finishing with a 4.06 ERA and 1.2 WAR. Kyle Crick was a revelation in the bullpen, securing the seventh inning role to the tune of a 2.43 ERA and 1.4 WAR. Reynolds and Martin both had very solid campaigns in the minor leagues and Corey Dickerson outperformed McCutchen in 2018, hitting .298 with 13 home runs and 3.5 WAR, compared to McCutchen, who hit .254 and was worth 2.7 WAR. Despite the public-relations hit, the off season moves could not have worked out much better.
2018: The Bridge to Buctober
The Pirates’ new acquisitions played well, but it was the steps forward taken by returning players that has made the future look bright. In the rotation Trevor Williams and Jameson Taillon have taken big leaps forward, finishing with 14 wins each 3.04 and 3.16 ERAs respectively. Williams was worth 3.7 WAR and Taillon was worth 4.2 WAR. The Pirates also made a splashy move at the trade deadline, acquiring two-time all star pitcher Chris Archer from the Rays. The bullpen was reminiscent of the “shark tank” bullpens of 2013-15 with Richard Rodriguez, Crick, and trade deadline acquisition Keone Kela setting up dominant closer Felipe Vazquez, who made the all-star team and recorded 36 saves. Behind the plate Francisco Cervelli and Elias Diaz were the most productive catching tandem in the league, combining for 21 home runs and 4.2 WAR. The Pirates outfield trio of Corey Dickerson, Starling Marte, and Gregory Polanco all had nice seasons, combining for the most extra base hits for a Pirates outfield since 2008. Middle infielders Jordy Mercer and Josh Harrison turned in mediocre seasons, but second baseman Adam Frazier recovered from a slow start to establish himself as an everyday player in the big leagues, accumulating 2.6 WAR in only 310 at bats. Josh Bell had endured a disappointing sophomore season after a great rookie year in 2017, but he is a prime candidate for a bounce back season in 2019. Despite not so great expectations coming into the season the Pirates had a solid 2018 season. But why will 2019 be better?
Trevor Williams and Jameson Taillon have established themselves as top of the rotation arms in 2018 (Image from pointofpittsburgh.com)
2019: The Year It All comes Together
The one weak spot on the 2018 Pirates was the middle infield tandem of Josh Harrison and Jordy Mercer who combined for only 0.3 WAR while being paid a combined $17 million. Mercer and Harrison will be free agents after the season and will most likely not be re-signed by the Pirates. This will allow Adam Frazier to play everyday at second base and allow 2015 first-round pick Kevin Newman to play shortstop. Maybe the biggest asset that the subtraction of Mercer and Harrison brings is money to spend. They were two of the highest paid Pirates in 2018 and getting their contracts off the books will give the Pirates money to spend on a very good free agent class. Oakland A’s infielder Jed Lowrie or Cleveland Indians third baseman Josh Donaldson could be targets that would improve the team. Even a reunion with Andrew McCutchen could be possible with Gregory Polanco out until June with an injury. The 2019 team could be a dangerous team with an outstanding pitching staff and solid offense that can be supplemented with free agent signings. The future is bright in Pittsburgh, with 2019 possibly being the year the Pirates return to the postseason.
Stats as of 9/27/18
Stats, salaries, standings, and free agent class from baseball-reference.com
Imagine being a fan of the Tampa Bay Rays. You have the pleasure of watching a winning team night in and night out, but instead of living and dying with every pitch during this September pennant chase you are watching meaningless games played by a team with no chance of making the playoffs.
Should the best teams make the playoffs? This question has plagued Major League Baseball over the last few seasons and this year in particular. This season it is clear that the best ten teams will not be battling for October glory.
How are the playoff teams decided?
There are three divisions in the National League and three divisions in the American League. The team with the best record in each division qualify for the playoffs. Additionally, the two teams with the best record in each league to not win their division make the playoffs, though they are penalized for not winning their division by having to play a one game playoff versus the other wild card team.
Why doesn’t this work?
Each season some of the best teams in baseball are penalized unfairly by these rules. A prime example is seen this season in the Tampa Bay Rays. As of September 20, they have a 85-66 record playing in the historically tough AL East. This record would put them in first place in three of the other five divisions, as well as right in the thick of the NL wild card race. Instead the Rays are in third place in the AL East, 17.5 games behind the first place Red Sox and 7.5 games behind the second place Yankees. They are also 5.5 games out of the second AL wild card spot with only 11 games left, an all but insurmountable deficit.
The Cleveland Indians have already clinched the AL Central division with a record of 85-66, identical to the Rays. The Indians have undoubtedly benefited from an easy schedule, playing in a division with no other teams above .500. The Indians have only played 51 games versus teams who are over .500 and they have a record of 20-31 in those games. Meanwhile the Rays have played 72 games vs. teams over .500 with a record of 33-39 in those games. Clearly the Rays had to fight much harder and play much better than the Indians to earn their 85 wins.
These rules are unfair for the New York Yankees as well. Finishing in second place behind the Red Sox, who have had a historically great season, the Yankees will have to play a one-game playoff versus the Oakland A’s, a great team in their own right. The Yankees 91 wins would put them in first place in every other division except the AL West. It is a shame that such a good team will have to play a do or die game right off the bat while worse teams go straight to a best of five series.
This season is far from a perfect storm, these issues have persisted throughout the last few seasons. In 2015, the National League Wild Card Game was played between the 98-win Pittsburgh Pirates and the 97-win Chicago Cubs, the two teams with the second and third best records in all of baseball. When the Cubs beat the Pirates 4-0 in that game, the second best team in baseball that year was eliminated right off the bat. Then the 100-win St. Louis Cardinals had to play a best of 5 series with the Cubs, when in theory they should be playing the worst playoff team since they had the best record in baseball that year. Meanwhile, the Cubs were disadvantaged because they had to use their best pitcher, Jake Arrieta, against the Pirates, so Arrieta could only pitch once against the Cardinals. The Pirates and Cubs would have finished in first in every other division in baseball that season.
The 98-win 2015 Pirates had to play a do-or-die game right off the bat, while lesser teams got to play a full series (Image from zimbio.com)
The 2006 St. Louis Cardinals won the NL Central division with a 83-78 record that would not have won any other division or wild card in the league that season. They made the playoffs and went on to win the World Series, the lowest win total by a World Series winner in the history of baseball. The MLB playoffs are largely a crapshoot where any team can get hot and make a run but one would be hard-pressed to say the 2006 Cardinals deserved to make the playoff that season when five teams that had better records than the Cardinals that season failed to qualify for the playoffs.
A Proposed Solution
Major League Baseball should restructure their playoff seeding so the best ten teams make the playoffs more consistently. Ignore division winners, take the top five teams from each league and seed them one through five. Make the Wild Card Games between the two lowest seeded playoff teams in each league, this way the teams being penalized with a one-game do-or-die game are actually the worst playoff teams. It is a simple solution that would make things more fair for teams like the Rays , a very good team in a great division that will be watching the playoffs from the couch this winter.
The 2006 Cardinals won the World Series despite a pedestrian 83-78 record (Photo from usatoday.com)
2018 standings as of 9/20 from MLB.com
2015 and 2006 standings from baseball-reference.com
Full Count 